There are a lot of ways to figure out the optimal place to pick in a fantasy football draft, but I like to look at it through tiers. Where does each draft break?
It happens in every round. Not every second-round pick is the same. Not every eighth-round pick is the same. There are distinct differences between the players chosen even a few picks apart.
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That’s no less true this year. Perhaps, it’s more true than ever.
Look at the first round. There are some clear tiers that come through. Christian McCaffrey is in a class of his own. He is the top player on the board. He scored 100 points more than the No. 2 running back last season (in half-PPR leagues) and averaged 2.5 more points-per-game than Kyren Williams, the No. 2 RB in points-per-game.
Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are the two other true lead backs coming into this season. Robinson is a bit of a projection but Hall put up big stats for a crud team last year. The expectation, and hope, is that they’ll be even better in 2024.
Then there are the receivers. CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown are at the top of the class. Together, those eight players make up the consensus top 8 of fantasy drafts this summer.
But I think there is one wide receiver who fits into that group, and it’s why, when looking at where I’d like to draft, I want to catch the last spot in that elite group of players, so I prefer the No. 9 spot. (Based on being in a 12-team, half-PPR league, and who is likely to be available based on their average draft position)
Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown has been a little overlooked by drafters so far. He has an ADP of 9.3 in half-PPR leagues, two full spots below St. Brown. But Brown belongs in that class of receivers, and arguably right in the middle of it.
Sure, he had a bad finish to the 2023 season, but so did the Eagles. Like, well, all of them. Brown had just 16 catches for 198 yards over the final four games and Philadelphia went 1-5 to finish its season. It was all bad. But look what happened before then — don’t let a four-game sample size sway you.
In 2022, Brown’s first season with the Eagles, he was the WR5 by total points and WR7 by points-per-game. Last year, from Weeks 1-14, Brown averaged 16.2 points — fourth-best among all wide receivers. That’s elite production for almost two full seasons.
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This year, the Eagles changed offensive coordinators. Kellen Moore is bringing a history of high pre-snap motion usage to an offense that barely had any. Brown should benefit. The offense should be less of the zombie it was to finish off last season.
If Brown is already gone at No. 9 in your draft, that means one of the players above him will still be there for you. You’d be no worse off.
By picking at the bottom end of that tier of players, you then get to pick higher up in the second round. The options at No. 16 are interesting. The players available would still allow you to get the No. 1 RB you want. And with the receivers who could be available at this spot — Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Davante Adams — I’d be inclined to go RB here and get your lead back.
Williams has an ADP of 16.3. He was the No. 2 RB by PPG last season and is in a great offense. If he stays healthy, he should still be responsible for a lot of points, even with Blake Corum there. Derrick Henry (20.0 ADP) could crush in fantasy this year if you can live with the age concerns (he’s 30) and lack of receiving game — running behind Lamar Jackson last season, Gus Edwards was tied for third among all backs last year with 13 TDs. That said, I’d opt for De’Von Achane (23) or Isiah Pacheco (23.7), who should also be a consideration, even if they’re going, on average, closer to the end of the second than the top. Achane had insane efficiency last year and while that should drop a little, he is still in a great running game and looks like he’ll get more touches this season. Pacheco looks as if he will aggregate the majority of touches in the Chiefs backfield, and he was the RB6 from Weeks 11-18 last season. Taking the top running back in what could be the league’s highest-scoring offense is not a bad bet to make.
At No. 33, you have a chance to add a top QB to your team. Both Jalen Hurts (32.3) and Patrick Mahomes (32.7) could be available. If both are gone, or you’re not interested in a QB, receivers Jaylen Waddle (36.3) and Cooper Kupp (38) should be on the board. Waddle is still a high-upside pick in a great offense and Kupp has a high ceiling if you’re a believer that he hasn’t hit the age cliff and injuries were what slowed him down last season after a record-breaking season in 2021 and a great start to 2022.
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Your next pick, at 40th overall, could be your last chance to get a high-profile WR. Malik Nabers is one of the last of the receivers I believe has a chance to be a WR1 this season, and he has a 53 ADP right now, though that could shoot up if he can do in one preseason game what he’s said to be doing in practice so far. Or it could fall if his ankle injury is worse than it seems right now. But DJ Moore (39.3), DK Metcalf (39.3) and Devonta Smith (47.7) could all be on the board for you at 40, especially if other teams in your league get hungry for running backs. Cardinals TE Trey McBride (47.3) is also an interesting option if you want to get an elite player at that position on your team, even if it means reaching a little bit. Ravens TE Mark Andrews (47.7) is also there in that same area but take Isaiah Likely late if you’re going to take Andrews — he might be the first-ever handcuff TE.
If you only have two receivers by the time you get to your next pick, at No. 57, or even if you have three, this seems like the time to add another one. George Pickens (58.7) and Tank Dell (65) should both be available. Each has their strengths. Pickens should be the clear-cut top WR in Pittsburgh and Arthur Smith has been a wilier offensive coordinator than head coach in his career. The Titans were top 10 in points in both of his years as the OC there and A.J. Brown had 1,000+ yards and at least eight touchdowns in each of his two seasons with Smith. Brown was actually the WR5 in points-per-game in 2020. So there is hope for Arthur Smith yet. Dell had a strong rookie year, plays with a great quarterback in C.J. Stroud and is in a great offense. He could still be there with your next pick if you want to wait, but I wouldn’t let Stefon Diggs diminish any Dell bullishness.
The No. 64 pick could be your chance to land a QB if you haven’t taken one yet. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (67) seems in line for a very good comeback season. He was the QB9 last year after he returned from a torn ACL. This season, he gets Marvin Harrison Jr. as his top receiver, along with McBride. David Montgomery (61.3) would also be an interesting choice if he falls here. Montgomery was tied for RB12 in points-per-game and plays for a team that loves to run the ball. Here’s a stat for you: From Week 10 through the end of the Lions playoff run, after he came back from injury, Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs each had 15 rushes from inside the 10 but Montgomery had one more touchdown.
The No. 81 pick would be a good opportunity to get your starting tight end if you haven’t yet. Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson (85) and Browns TE David Njoku (88.3) should both be on the board. Ferguson was tied for the fifth-most targets inside the 10 (along with ARSB) and is probably the No. 2 option on a team with just one formidable receiver and a pass-heavy approach. Njoku might be the best value pick of the draft. He finished as the No. 7 TE in PPG last season, but look a little closer — he was the No. 2 TE in PPG from Week 6 on, and the top-scoring TE from Week 8 on. He’s going in the eighth round while Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce are being picked at the start of the third.
Your eighth round pick, No. 88 overall, is a good time to get a Chiefs receiver if you don’t have one yet. Rashee Rice (88.3) and Xavier Worthy (97.3) are both projected to still be available. Rice proved himself last year as an option for Mahomes, but he carries a risk of getting suspended at some point this season after he spent the offseason getting into legal trouble. Another receiver option: Panthers WR Diontae Johnson (91). New Panthers head coach Dave Canales is saying all the right things.
And a few more later-round thoughts, which are harder to call because it’ll depend on how your roster looks up until that point:
- There could be a few interesting choices at No. 105. If you still don’t have a quarterback, then this is the time. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (107) and Bears QB Caleb Williams (108.3) could both be available and both are intriguing, with Daniels offering more rushing upside. Williams has a much better receiving corps and is the better passer.
- Titans RB Tyjae Spears (103.7) is going 18 picks after Tony Pollard although they seem to project for nearly equal shares in the Titans backfield, while Cardinals RB Trey Benson (107) should get a shot in Arizona at some point since 29-year-old James Conner has never played a full season and has missed four games in each of the past two seasons.
- You might be able to get Josh Allen’s top receiver in the 10th round. That’s where Keon Coleman (114) is going. It seems like a reasonable dart throw since Buffalo needs his size and talent in that receiver corps after it lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. For what it’s worth, Coleman was the only WR out there the whole time with the first team in the Bills’ first preseason game.
Buffalo Bills snap rates with Josh Allen (8 plays) on the field:
100% — Keon Coleman
100% — James Cook
88% — Dalton Kincaid (4 plays in the slot, 3 at TE)
75% — Dawson Knox
50% — Khalil Shakir
50% — Curtis Samuel
38% — MVSSamuel and Coleman were the outside receivers on the…
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 12, 2024
- Rams RB Blake Corum (121.3) is this year’s handcuff RB pick. If Williams goes down, Corum should pick up the workload and get a lot of it in a good offense.
- Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. (130.3) should get some deep looks from Trevor Lawrence, which gives him a chance to have some big weeks. He might be a better-in-best-ball option, but if some deep pass variance goes his way, he could also have a very good rookie year. He was the fourth WR taken in the draft and he goes to a QB who likes to throw deep — Lawrence was tied with Josh Allen for the 11th-most passes 20+ yards in the air and tied for seventh in passes 40+ yards in the air. Thomas replaces Calvin Ridley, who had 136 targets and the 20th-longest average depth-of-target for receivers with at least three targets per game. Gabe Davis will get those deep looks too but Thomas has the talent to be one of the Jaguars’ top two receivers as a rookie.
Brian Thomas Jr.’s first NFL catch is a highlight one 🔥
pic.twitter.com/NLfHbZep1b— PFF (@PFF) August 10, 2024
- Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth (135.3) is an intriguing pick. Again, getting back to the Arthur Smith of it all, while Kyle Pitts was a disappointment in Atlanta while Smith was there, the Falcons were a reliable TE-dependent offense under Smith. Atlanta tight ends ranked fourth in points scored in Yahoo half-PPR in 2021 (when Pitts had 1,026 yards), 22nd in 2022, and third last year. The Titans tight ends ranked ninth (2019) and third (2020) under Smith. Now, Freiermuth could get to benefit from Smith’s love for tight ends.
- Patriots WR Ja’Lynn Polk is too good to go this late. He was picked just four picks later than Keon Coleman and three after Ladd McConkey, but he’s going 60-70 picks later. I know the QB situation is vastly different but the talent is there, as is the opportunity.
- Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan (250.5) is likely not getting drafted in your league but keep an eye on him. He is playing well in Bucs camp — Baker Mayfield called him a “stud” — and is a Chris Godwin or Mike Evans injury away from being a top option in Tampa Bay’s receiving game. He might still be one as new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen comes from the Sean McVay staff, and his disciples like to run plenty of three-WR sets.
- My favorite late-round picks: Not kickers and defenses. Keep taking position players until the end and save picking up those two positions until you hit the free agent list the morning before you have to set the lineup for Week 1.
(Top photo of A.J. Brown: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY)
Mike Vorkunov is the national basketball business reporter for The Athletic. He covers the intersection of money and basketball and covers the sport at every level. He previously spent three-plus seasons as the New York Knicks beat writer. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeVorkunov
